Nyob rau hauv thawj ib nrab ntawm 2023, phosphate chiv ua lag luam raws li ib tug tag nrho qhia ib tug qauv ntawm stability thiab tom qab ntawd poob, cov kev hloov nyob rau hauv kev ua lag luam mov thiab kev thov thiab kev hloov pauv ntawm cov khoom siv raw cov nqi tau dhau los ua qhov tseem ceeb cuam tshuam rau kev lag luam phosphate chiv. Tom qab Lub Xya Hli, lub caij nplooj zeeg kev ua lag luam raws li "qhov tseem ceeb sib ntaus sib tua" ntawm phosphate chiv muag, kev lag luam xav tau yuav maj mam tso tawm, nyob rau hauv kev txhawb nqa ntawm tus nqi thiab kev thov, kev lag luam hauv tsev phosphate chiv lossis yuav ua rau muaj kev lag luam nce ntxiv.
Kev ua lag luam
Tom qab stabilizing, trading tig tsis muaj zog
Nyob rau hauv thawj ib nrab ntawm lub xyoo, kev ua lag luam kev ua lag luam ntawm phosphate chiv nyob rau hauv thawj peb lub hlis twg thiab lub quarter thib ob yuav hais tau txawv heev. Thaum pib ntawm lub xyoo, vim qhov kev nce ntxiv ntawm kev ua lag luam nyob rau thaum xaus ntawm lub xyoo dhau los, ua ke nrog lub caij nplooj ntoos hlav kev lag luam xav tau, mono-ammonium thiab diammonium kev lag luam nyob rau hauv lub xeev siab ntawm stability, thiab nyob rau hauv lub quarter thib ob, kev ua lag luam nkag mus rau lub off-season, kev ua lag luam pib nkag mus rau hauv lub swb channel, thiab mus txog rau thaum Lub Xya hli ntuj, lub lag luam muaj me ntsis txhim kho cov cim.
Txij Lub Ob Hlis mus txog Lub Plaub Hlis, lub caij nplooj ntoo hlav hauv teb chaws pib los ntawm sab qab teb mus rau sab qaum teb, phosphate chiv belongs rau "sab qab teb chiv sab qaum teb thauj" ntau yam, tab sis kuj yog cov chiv chiv ntawm ntau lub caij nplooj ntoos hlav chiv, vim lub caij nplooj ntoos hlav caij nplooj ntoos hlav plowing chiv xyoo no, lub domestic phosphate fertilizer kev lag luam xav tau kuj tseem concentrated, lub downstream ua ntej lub caij nplooj ntoos hlav nyiaj pab txhawb nqa, tos txais tos. Tom qab lub caij nplooj ntoos hlav Festival hnub so, cov khoom siv raw khoom lag luam tsis ruaj khov, thiab nrog cov nqi ntawm cov khoom siv urea poob qis, kev lag luam tshiab ib qho kev lag luam tsis muaj zog, lub Hoobkas tau tshem tawm cov lus kom tau txais qhov kev txiav txim, qhov tseem ceeb ua ntej txiav txim, kev lag luam qib siab yog tsawg. Txawm li cas los xij, nyob rau lub sijhawm tom qab, nrog rau kev lag luam xav tau ntawm Northeast kev ua lag luam ua raws li, kev ua lag luam coj ib qho kev txhim kho hauv lub sijhawm luv luv. Tom qab ib feem ntawm thawj peb lub hlis twg, nrog rau qhov kawg ntawm lub caij nplooj ntoos hlav ua liaj ua teb chiv nyob rau hauv Northeast Tuam Tshoj, lub domestic phosphate fertilizer caij nplooj ntoos hlav kev lag luam pib los xaus, lub lag luam ua lag luam huab cua tsis muaj zog, lub Hoobkas txiav ntau lawm los yog nqa tawm cov cuab yeej tu, thiab kev ua lag luam maj tsis muaj zog.
Vim muaj kev muag khoom zoo raws caij nyoog ntawm phosphate chiv, tom qab kawg ntawm lub caij nplooj ntoos hlav ua liaj ua teb, txij lub Tsib Hlis mus txog rau Lub Rau Hli, phosphate chiv tau nkag mus rau hauv cov tsoos off-season. Ammonium lub caij ntuj sov chiv tsuas yog tsim cov khoom siv raw xav tau ua raws li, lub tuam txhab kev txiav txim tshiab tsis txaus ua raws li, thiab cov nqes dej hauv qab cov chiv cov khoom lag luam siab loj, tshwj xeeb tshaj yog nyob rau sab qaum teb Tuam Tshoj thaum caij nplooj ntoos hlav thiab lub caij ntuj sov nrog cov nitrogen siab siab, kev yuav khoom ntawm ammonium raw cov ntaub ntawv raug txo, kev lag luam bearish mentality yog aggravated, cov lus nug xav tau ntawm cov lag luam yog nce sharply, kev khiav hauj lwm tus nqi yog poob. Diamonium domestic lag luam tawm lub caij, lub hom phiaj ntawm kev lag luam tig mus rau kev lag luam xa tawm, tab sis kev lag luam thoob ntiaj teb tsis muaj zog poob qis, kev txhawb nqa tsuas yog rau kev lag luam hauv tsev. Tshwj xeeb tshaj yog nyob rau lub Rau Hli, kev lag luam xav tau tsis muaj zog, cov hauv paus kev yuav khoom stagnated, ua ke nrog kev poob qis ntawm cov khoom siv raw, cov nqi txhawb zog tsis muaj zog, chaw nres tsheb txij nkawm nce, thiab cov nqi lag luam poob qis. Thaum kawg ntawm Lub Rau Hli, kev lag luam tus nqi ntawm mono-ammonium poob rau 2,470 yuan / tuj, thiab cov nqi lag luam ntawm diammonium poob rau 3,620 yuan / ton.
Cov khoom xyaw
Lub downside kev txhawb nqa ntawm kev poob siab tsis muaj zog
Hauv thawj ib nrab ntawm lub xyoo, ib qho ntawm cov laj thawj tseem ceeb ntawm kev poob qis hauv kev lag luam phosphate chiv yog qhov tsis ruaj khov ntawm cov khoom siv raw khoom, thiab cov nqi ntawm cov khoom siv tseem ceeb xws li sulfur, phosphate ore thiab hluavtaws ammonia tag nrho pom qhov poob qis. Tshwj xeeb tshaj yog tom qab kawg ntawm lub caij nplooj ntoos hlav chiv, tus nqi tau poob qis, thiab tus nqi them nyiaj ntawm phosphate chiv tau poob qis, uas tau ua rau cov tub lag luam poob qis dua thiab tus nqi tau poob.
Los ntawm qhov kev xav ntawm leej faj, nyob rau hauv thawj ib nrab ntawm lub xyoo, lub domestic sulfur lag luam pom ib tug downward trend, raws li lub rau hli ntuj 30, tus nqi nruab nrab ntawm chaw nres nkoj sulfur 807 yuan / ton, down 72.95 feem pua ntawm tib lub sij hawm xyoo tas los. Qhov laj thawj tseem ceeb yog qhov khoom siv thiab kev xav tau cuam tshuam rau tus nqi. Kev lag luam thoob ntiaj teb cov chiv tsis muaj zog, kev tsim kho hauv tsev phosphate chiv kuj tsawg, qhov kev thov tsis zoo, cov khoom siv ntau dhau mus ntxiv, kev lag luam sulfur yog dominated los ntawm bearish, thiab tus nqi yog nyob rau hauv siab.
Nyob rau hauv thawj ib nrab ntawm lub xyoo, tus nqi ntawm phosphate pob zeb tau nce ua ntej thiab tom qab ntawd poob, thawj peb lub hlis twg, cuam tshuam los ntawm cov tsoos mining lub sij hawm, lub khw muag khoom yog nruj, tus nqi muaj zog, thiab tus nqi ntawm 28 qib phosphate pob zeb rau lub Hoobkas yog hais txog 1100 yuan / tuj. Nkag mus rau lub Tsib Hlis, vim qhov kawg ntawm lub caij ncov rau phosphate chiv xav tau, lub Hoobkas pib poob qis, qhov kev thov ntawm phosphate ore poob qis, thiab tus nqi pib poob qis, txij li Lub Xya Hli, tus nqi tau poob ze li 300 yuan / tuj. Tom qab ntawd, nrog kev rov qab los ntawm kev thov rau phosphate chiv, tus nqi ntawm phosphate ore yuav tsum maj mam nce.
Nyob rau hauv thawj ib nrab ntawm lub xyoo, qhov tsis tu ncua ntawm cov khoom siv raw cov nqi tsis muaj zog txhawb kev lag luam phosphate chiv, thiab kev lag luam tau dominated los ntawm bearish; Nyob rau hauv lub thib ob ib nrab ntawm lub xyoo, nrog lub sij hawm los txog ntawm lub ncov lub caij rau phosphate chiv xav tau, cov raw khoom yuav maj mam tuaj.
tav su kev sib tham
Lub rebound yuav tsum khaws lub khw
Tam sim no, kev lag luam phosphate chiv yog qhov ruaj khov, qhov kev nug ntawm ammonium downstream tau nce, qhov kev lag luam tiag tiag tau txhim kho, thiab kev ua lag luam tau nce; Diammonium cov tub lag luam yuav nyob rau lub caij nplooj zeeg lossis tom qab tshaj li monammonium, vim tias qee tus neeg muag khoom tseem ceev faj txog qhov thib ob ntawm cov khw muag khoom, yog li lub caij nplooj zeeg lub sijhawm yuav raug ncua. Nws cia siab tias txij thaum Lub Xya Hli mus txog rau Lub Yim Hli, kev yuav khoom ntawm cov khoom siv raw phosphate chiv los ntawm cov khoom siv cog qoob loo yuav maj mam nce, cov nqi lag luam yuav maj mam ua kom pom tseeb, thiab kev hloov pauv yuav maj mam nce hauv lub caij nplooj zeeg. Nyob rau hauv Shandong, Henan, Hebei thiab lwm qhov chaw, cov nplej npaj chiv thiab chiv tseem yuav pib rau lub Cuaj Hli thiab Lub Kaum Hli, thiab kev ua lag luam hauv tsev yuav zoo dua li tam sim no.
Kev txiav txim siab los ntawm kev ua lag luam nyob rau theem no, kev lag luam tseem muaj kev ntseeg siab txog kev xav tau hauv tsev thaum lub caij nplooj zeeg lig. Kev ua raws li lub caij nplooj zeeg chiv tsuas yog xav tau los txhawb rooj plaub, nws xav tias phosphate chiv nqi yuav nce siab nyob rau hauv ib qho ntawm lub Xya Hli mus txog rau lub Cuaj Hli, thiab kev lag luam yav tom ntej yuav tsum tau tsom mus rau cov kev hloov pauv ntawm cov khoom siv raw khoom thiab cov kev taw qhia ntawm cov cai xws li kev xa tawm hauv lub tebchaws.
