Ib tsab ntawv tshaj tawm RaboResearch tshiab tau nthuav tawm cov xwm txheej nyuaj rau kev lag luam chiv thoob ntiaj teb hauv 2024. Txawm hais tias thawj qhov kev cia siab rau kev rov qab los, kev thov chiv tsis tau txhawb nqa txoj kev loj hlob tau pom nyob rau xyoo 2023. Kev thov rau cov chiv tseem ceeb tseem qeeb. Cov chiv muaj peev xwm ua tau zoo, tam sim no nruab nrab, xav tias yuav tig tsis zoo tom qab xyoo vim muaj kev cuam tshuam rau cov neeg ua liaj ua teb kev ua haujlwm.
Hauv 1H24, cov nqi chiv tsis pom tias lub xyoo yuav txhawb nqa txoj kev rov qab los tau pom nyob rau xyoo 2023. Tam sim no, thaum peb mus txog rau lub caij cog qoob loo yav qab teb Hemisphere, qhov xwm txheej rau qee cov chiv, xws li MAP thiab DAP, tseem nyuaj. Lawv cov nqi yog ntau dua piv rau xyoo dhau los thiab rau lwm yam chiv xws li potash.
"Nrog rau cov nqi chiv no, ntxiv rau qhov kev nyuaj siab ntawm cov neeg ua liaj ua teb ua haujlwm margins vim cov khoom lag luam qis qis, peb tsis xav tias cov chiv xav tau kev loj hlob rov qab mus rau 2023 qib nyob rau lub hlis tom ntej," said Bruno Fonseca, Senior Analyst, Farm Inputs ntawm RaboResearch.
Fertilizer affordability poob
"Kev kwv yees ntawm cov qoob loo muaj zog thoob ntiaj teb txuas ntxiv mus rau kev lag luam khoom lag luam, ua rau tus nqi qis thiab txo qis kev ua haujlwm rau cov neeg ua liaj ua teb," piav qhia Fonseca. "Ib lub sijhawm ntawd, cov nqi ntawm nitrogen thiab phosphate tseem nyob saum qhov nruab nrab ntawm keeb kwm. Peb qhov kev pheej hmoo pheej yig qhia tau tias cov chiv muaj peev xwm yuav txav mus rau thaj chaw tsis zoo nyob rau yim lub hlis tom ntej."
Phosphate affordability tseem ceeb zuj zus nyob rau hauv lub hlis tsis ntev los no. Qhov kev poob qis no yog vim qhov nce nqi rau MAP thiab DAP chiv, ua ke nrog cov khoom lag luam tsis zoo.
Nyob rau hauv sib piv, cov nitrogen thiab potash pheej yig indexes tau qhia kev ruaj ntseg, thaum urea nqi muaj kev hloov pauv vim muaj teeb meem khoom noj thaum lub Rau Hli. Potash affordability Performance index pom kev txhim kho me ntsis txog Lub Xya Hli, vim tias qhov txo qis ntawm cov chiv chiv offset qhov cuam tshuam tsis zoo ntawm cov khoom lag luam poob qis.
Cov khoom lag luam qis qis qis txuas ntxiv mus rau qhov siab ntawm cov paj thiab cov chiv xav tau
Thoob plaws xyoo 2024, cov khoom lag luam agri tau pheej poob qis, feem ntau yog tsav los ntawm cov ntaub ntawv lossis ze li cov ntaub ntawv pob kws thiab taum pauv hauv Asmeskas thiab Brazil, ua rau cov khoom lag luam thoob ntiaj teb loj heev. Lwm yam tseem ceeb suav nrog kev lag luam tsis paub tseeb, cov nqi thauj khoom ntau dua, kev ntxhov siab hauv thaj chaw, kev rov tshwm sim ntawm La Niña, kev tiv thaiv kev tiv thaiv, thiab ib puag ncig nyuaj rau kev xa tawm.
Fonseca hais tias "Qhov cuam tshuam ntawm cov khoom lag luam qis qis yog qhov dav. "Cov npoo qis, dhau los, cuam tshuam rau kev them taus ntawm cov chiv, dampening thov."
Natural gas nqi thiab geopolitics tuaj yeem cuam tshuam kev lag luam
"Muaj ntau qhov kev txhim kho tuaj yeem hloov pauv kev lag luam luv luv thiab yuav tsum tau saib xyuas kom zoo," ceeb toom Fonseca. "Cov no suav nrog cov nqi roj av, uas tuaj yeem hloov pauv sai vim qhov xwm txheej ntawm thaj chaw nom tswv lossis lub caij ntuj no txias nyob rau sab qaum teb Hemisphere. Tsis tas li ntawd, kev hloov pauv ntawm phosphate xa tawm cov tswv yim los ntawm Tuam Tshoj thiab Morocco tuaj yeem cuam tshuam. Thaum kawg, cov kev sib tw tshiab Indian thiab Suav. rau potash kuj tseem ceeb rau saib. "
Fertilizer xav tau nyob rau hauv 2025 thiab 2026
Xav txog cov neeg ua liaj ua teb qhov kev cia siab ntawm cov paj thiab lub ntiaj teb thaj av ntawm cov khoom lag luam tseem ceeb, RaboResearch cia siab tias yuav pom qhov kev loj hlob ntawm cov chiv chiv hauv ob xyoos tom ntej. Nitrogen xav tau zoo li yuav rov qab qeeb qeeb hauv 2025 thiab tuaj yeem nce me ntsis hauv 2026. Phosphate xav tau yuav nyob rau hauv siab hauv 2025, nrog kev loj hlob tsawg hauv 2026. Kev thov rau potash, uas tam sim no muaj tus nqi zoo dua, maj mam rov qab los hauv 2024. Kev rov qab yuav zoo li qeeb hauv 2025, tab sis nce ntxiv hauv 2026.
