Thaum Lub Rau Hli 2026, S&P Ntiaj Teb tau suav 328 lab tonnes ntawm kev tshaj tawm qis -carbon ammonia peev. Nees nkaum lab tsim nyog raws li yuav tsim. Tsuas yog 10.8 lab muaj qhov kev txiav txim siab zaum kawg. Cuaj caug- xya ntawm txhua puas tshaj tawm tonnes muaj, rau tam sim no, ntawm daim ntawv. Tshuab tsis yog vim li cas: electrolysis ua haujlwm, thiab Haber- cov txheej txheem Bosch tau siv txij li xyoo 1913. Lwm yam yog tuav rov qab 300 lab tonnes.
Ob peb deals uas tau kaw qhia tias dab tsi yog dab tsi.
Cov deals uas kaw
| Deal | Cov lej | Dab tsi ua rau nws bankable |
| NEOM, Saudi Arabia | Nyiaj txiag kaw 2023 ntawm USD 8.4bn. USD 6.1 bn tsis yog- cov nuj nqis rov qab los ntawm 23 lub tsev txhab nyiaj thiab tuam txhab nyiaj txiag | Cov Cuab Yeej Cuab Yeej: 30-xyoo tshwj xeeb offtake rau tag nrho cov zis, ntxiv rau EPC lub luag haujlwm |
| Fertiglobe ntawm H2Global auction, Egypt rau EU | EUR 1,000 ib tonne xa, txog USD 1,090. Cov pa ammonia tib lub lim tiam: USD 490, CFR NW Europe (Platts) | Hintco, ib lub xeev -nyiaj pab neeg yuav khoom. H2Global cov qhabnias luv luv npe cov kev pabcuam: kev lag luam nyiaj txiag. Txawm li cas los xij, txij li thaum ntxov 2026 qhov project tseem luv luv ntawm kev kaw nyiaj txiag, nrog tsib lub tsev txhab nyiaj txhim kho tau teeb tsa. |
| AM Green Kakinada, Is Nrias teb | Txog 500,000 tonnes ib xyoos tau cog lus rau Uniper, Lub Ib Hlis 2026 | RFNBO ua ntej- ntawv pov thawj nrog lub zog tauj dua tshiab txhua teev |
Tus qauv rov ua dua. Bankability tau tsim ua ntej thawj tonne tuaj yeem txav mus los, thiab txawm tias lub xeev tus neeg yuav khoom ntawm EUR 1,000 ib tonne tseem tsis tau tiav cov nyiaj txiag Egyptian.
Tam sim no cia cov megaprojects qab. Qhov no yog qhov chaw ua liaj ua teb chiv nyob.
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Qhov twg ammonia mus tiag tiag (S&P Ntiaj Teb, Lub Rau Hli 2026)
| Ntiaj teb kev tsim khoom, 2025 | 210 Mt |
| Hloov pauv qhov twg nws tau ua, feem ntau yog urea | 166 Mt (79%) |
| Ua lag luam hla ciam teb | 17.7 Mt |
| Kev siv zog, 2026 | cav 2mt |
| Kev ruaj khov qis- carbon offtake rau hauv cov pa siv | 3.9mt ua |
| Kev ruaj khov qis- carbon offtake mus rau hauv lub hwj chim, shipping, hydrogen carriage | 1.3mt ib |
Thawj qhov qis - carbon tonnes yuav mus rau hauv cov saw hlau tsim khoom, tsis yog rau hauv cov roj bunker. Tsiv lawv yog ntau pua ntawm nruab nrab - cov neeg tsim khoom loj, cov neeg xa khoom thiab cov xa tawm, thiab tsis muaj ib qho ntawm lawv muaj Cov Khoom Siv Cua lossis Hintco tom qab daim ntawv cog lus.
Thiab lawv qhov teeb meem tuaj txog thaum Lub Ib Hlis 1, 2026. CBAM txoj cai tseem ceeb tam sim no nqi cov pa roj carbon monoxide hauv txhua cov khoom ntxhia nitrogen hla EU ciam teb: ammonia, urea, ammonium nitrate, UAN, CAN, thiab nitrogen -cov kabmob sib xyaw. Tus neeg xa khoom ntawm CBAM cov khoom siab tshaj 50 tonnes ib xyoos xav tau kev tso cai tshaj tawm raws li txoj cai, txheeb xyuas cov emissions embedded (direct thiab indirect), thiab daim ntawv pov thawj nqi ntawm EU ETS. Tus nqi nce txhua xyoo mus rau 2034 raws li EU pub dawb faib theem tawm: S&P Global tau ua qauv rau cov khoom nkhaus los ntawm cov khoom. Ib qho qis -carbon tonne khiav tawm ntawm daim ntawv xa nyiaj tsuas yog tias tau lees paub qhov tseeb emissions, tsis yog qhov tseem ceeb, raug teeb tsa hauv nws daim ntawv pov thawj. Ib tug nqi zog tauj dua tshiab tsa lub bar dua. RFNBO cov xwm txheej yuav tsum muaj kev sib txuas ntxiv ntawm lub cev thiab thaj chaw, kev txuag lub neej tsawg kawg yog 70 feem pua, thiab Daim Ntawv Pov Thawj ntawm Sustainability uas muaj sia nyob rau kev tshawb xyuas. Qhov kev pheej hmoo ua raws li zaum nrog tus neeg yuav khoom: thaum daim ntawv tsis ua tiav, tus neeg xa khoom nyob sab Europe yog ib qho tawm ntawm txoj haujlwm.
Tsis muaj leej twg them $ 1,090 rau ib qho molecule hais ntawm 490. Tus nqi yuav khoom siv raws li kev cai: ib lub tsheb thauj khoom uas nws txoj kev taug kev muaj sia nyob ntawm tus neeg pov thawj, pawg neeg qiv nyiaj, daim ntawv tshaj tawm CBAM, thiab RFNBO audit. Hauv kev ua lag luam no, cov ntaub ntawv tsis txuas nrog cov khoom. Nws yog cov khoom.
Ntawm no, cov lus teb tus qauv, "muag rau tus tub luam", tsis ua haujlwm. Tus tub luam siv lub npe thiab ua haujlwm. Qhov ntawd tso ib daim ntawv sib npaug ntxiv ntawm cov neeg tsim khoom thiab cov neeg yuav khoom, ib qho kev hloov pauv ntxiv rau cov saw hlau ntawm kev saib xyuas kom lees paub, ib qho ntxiv rau cov tuam txhab nyiaj hauv tuam txhab. Margin drifts mus rau nruab nrab. Thiab ntawm no yog cov lus nug uas cov neeg tsim khoom zoo tshaj plaws nug ua ntej: yog tias tus tub luam nqa tus nqi pheej hmoo, puas yog tag nrho cov kev pheej hmoo tsis tawm ntawm kuv lub rooj? Nws tsis yog. Khoom muag thiab tus nqi pheej hmoo yeej tsis tawm ntawm tus neeg tsim khoom. Ib tug tub luam tsis tshem nws. Tus tub luam nqi qhov kev pheej hmoo rau hauv luv nqi uas tus tsim khoom yeej tsis pom thiab them rau txhua tonne, mus ib txhis. Thiab tus tsim tawm tsis pom nws cov neeg siv khoom kawg, tsuas yog thaum lub npe ntev - tus neeg yuav khoom yog dab tsi ua rau kev nthuav dav ntxiv nyiaj txiag. Kev kho megaproject, muab txhua yam rau ib tus neeg yuav khoom rau 30 xyoo, tsis yog nyob rau ntawm qhov ntsuas no thiab yog qhov kev lag luam kim tshaj plaws yog qhov twg los xij.
Qhov tsis xis nyob: txhua daim ntawm cov qauv uas ploj lawm twb muaj lawm.
Dab tsi twb zaum ntawm cov neeg tsim khoom thiab kev ua lag luam
| Peev | Ntau tshaj 30 lub tsev txhab nyiaj lag luam nrog kev lag luam nyob thiab cov khoom lag luam nyiaj txiag thoob plaws Switzerland, EU thiab UK. Lub kaum ob lub tsev txhab nyiaj loj hlob thiab xa tawm cov chaw qiv nyiaj. Kaum ob ntawm kev lag luam nyiaj txiag tshwj xeeb. Qee 2,000 European ib leeg- tsev neeg chaw ua haujlwm, 57% ntawm lawv twb tau nqis peev ruaj khov (Deloitte) |
| Logistics | Nyob ib ncig ntawm lub kaum os ua haujlwm ammonia terminals hauv Northwest Europe. Tsib tshaj tawm hauv Rotterdam ib leeg. Yara's Brunsbüttel ntshuam davhlau ya nyob twg, qhib txij lub Kaum Hli 2024, ntsuas txog li 3 lab tonnes ib xyoos |
| Kev thov | EU chiv imports yog ib co 7.5 lab tonnes ib xyoo. Cov neeg xa khoom tseem tshuav hauv CBAM saum toj ntawm 50-tonne kab nqa 99% ntawm cov emissions embedded (European Commission) |
Tsawg heev ntawm cov peev no puas tau pom tias yog cov ntaub ntawv pov thawj ntsuab ntsuab. Routing hla kev ywj pheej terminals thiab thib ob -tier operators txiav cov nqi thauj khoom thiab khaws cia thiab ntxiv cov kev xaiv uas qiv tus nqi. Thiab cov concentrated mid-kev ua lag luam ntawm cov neeg xa khoom tsis tshua muaj kev ua raws li qis -carbon tonne nrog daim ntawv ua tiav. Lub khw tsis luv ntawm peev, tso tsheb hlau luam, lossis cov neeg yuav khoom. Nws yog luv ntawm ib tug assembler.
Cov cuab yeej rau txoj hauj lwm ntawd yog laus dua Haber-Bosch txheej txheem thiab tau tsiv hlau thiab nplej rau ob centuries yam tsis tau ua ib txoj hauj lwm: tus neeg sawv cev commission. Nyob rau hauv lub classical continental daim ntawv, tus neeg sawv cev cog lus nyob rau hauv nws tus kheej lub npe, tab sis rau tus tsim khoom tus account thiab nyob rau hauv tus tsim khoom txaus siab. Lub npe hla ncaj qha los ntawm tus tsim khoom mus rau tus neeg yuav khoom. Tus neeg sawv cev tuav tsis tau txoj hauj lwm, tsis muaj nqi lossis cov khoom lag luam pheej hmoo, thiab tsub tus nqi tas li thaum ib tonne muab tso rau, tsis yog kis tau faus rau hauv tus nqi. Qhov nws nqa yog daim duab qhia saum toj no thiab cov ntaub ntawv uas qhib nws: daim ntawv teev npe qiv nyiaj, lub davhlau ya nyob twg, CBAM thiab RFNBO cov ntaub ntawv, thiab cov qauv kev txiav txim siab yuav lees txais. Cov khoom lag luam yeej tsis hloov tes hauv nruab nrab, yog li cov saw ntawm kev saib xyuas nyob twj ywm ib qho txuas luv dua. Cov neeg siv khoom, cov paj, thiab kev sib raug zoo nyob nrog tus tsim khoom.
Lub megaproject tier yuav raug coj los ntawm cov xeev, cov nyiaj pov hwm, thiab cov neeg yuav khoom tseem ceeb. Cov chiv qib hauv qab no tseem tsis tau lees paub. Lub peev yog tsim nyob rau hauv Zurich, Geneva, Frankfurt, thiab London. Lub tank tab tom tsim. Cov neeg yuav khoom tab tom tos kom ua raws li tonne. Leej twg assembles no puzzle ua ntej yuav tus nqi ua ntej ntawm tus so thiab ua lag luam nrog nws. Cov neeg tsim khoom yuav tsis tswj qhov no ib leeg. Nrog cov neeg sawv cev commission, lawv yuav.
